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Where investment conviction meets discipline.
Document your thesis before capital moves. Track your process, not just your P&L. Build a research layer that compounds with every position.
The research layer
Tuesday, Jun 17
Daily Brief
Daily Market Thesis
Risk-off tone persisting despite headline CPI beat. Real yields still elevated — the market is pricing a higher-for-longer outcome that compresses multiples in unprofitable tech. Semis showing relative strength but volume is thin. Not chasing.
Key Facts
• UST 10y: 4.82% • HYG spread: +185bps • VIX: 18.4, trending up • DXY: 106.1, breaking out
Daily Playbook
AI infrastructure buildout is a multi-year capex supercycle. Hyperscalers are locked into GPU roadmaps 3–4 quarters out. Blackwell demand structurally exceeds supply. No credible alternative at scale.
Key Facts
H100/H200 sold out. $40B+ backlog. Data center revenue 87% of mix. Gross margins 78.4%.
Sizing & Exit
Full position at current levels. Add on any pullback to 50d. Thesis breaks if hyperscaler capex guidance cuts >15%.
Terminal market share erosion. AMD winning enterprise server. ARM cannibalizing client. Foundry turnaround requires capital Intel cannot generate internally. No catalyst to re-rate.
Key Facts
Data center share at 15yr low. Foundry losing $7B/yr. Cash burn accelerating. Gelsinger options exhausted.
Sizing & Exit
Short on rallies above $33. Cover near $22 — trough multiple on depressed earnings.
Every position requires a written thesis before capital is committed.
Thesis must include a specific invalidation condition — not a price stop.
No position exceeds 5% gross without IC approval.
Gross exposure cap: 200%. Net exposure range: -30% to +60%.
Single-name drawdown of 15% triggers a mandatory thesis review.
Never add to a position to average down. Size is set at initiation.
Earnings Dislocation
77%
22 trades · 2.4R
Stock gaps down on good results due to crowded positioning. Buy the dislocation within 48hrs as fast money unwinds.
Crowded Short Squeeze
64%
14 trades · 2.9R
High short interest + borrow cost spike + catalyst. Cover before the squeeze is consensus.
Macro Regime Short
68%
31 trades · 1.9R
Rising real yields + DXY strength targeting rate-sensitive, unprofitable tech with high duration.
Does my watchlist today actually connect to my thesis?
Mostly yes — but INTC is the weak link. Your thesis says risk-off and real yields elevated, but INTC is in your watchlist as a long breakout. That's a duration-sensitive name going against your macro view. NVDA and TLT both fit. INTC needs a separate rationale or should come off the list.
Which of my rules does today's plan conflict with?
One conflict: Rule 3 says 'no position without a written invalidation condition.' Your NVDA watchlist entry has a buy zone and setup, but no invalidation. What specifically would prove the thesis wrong?