Built for long / short equity funds
Where investment conviction meets discipline.
Document your thesis before capital moves. Track your process, not just your P&L. Build a research layer that compounds with every position.
The research layer
Monday, Jun 16
Morning Brief
Macro Positioning
Risk-off tone persisting despite headline CPI beat. Real yields still elevated — the market is pricing a higher-for-longer outcome that compresses multiples in unprofitable tech. • Short book outperforming. Add to crowded longs hitting stops. • EM outflows accelerating — China macro risk is the exogenous tail. • Invalidation: Fed pivot language + credit spreads tightening.
Key Factors
• UST 10y: 4.82% • HYG spread: +185bps • VIX: 18.4, trending up • DXY: 106.1, breaking out
Conviction
Net short. Reduce gross on any relief rallies above SPX 5480.
Position Monitor
AI infrastructure buildout is a multi-year capex supercycle. Hyperscalers are locked into GPU roadmaps 3–4 quarters out. Blackwell demand structurally exceeds supply. No credible alternative at scale.
Key Facts
H100/H200 sold out. $40B+ backlog. Data center revenue 87% of mix. Gross margins 78.4%.
Sizing & Exit
Full position at current levels. Add on any pullback to 50d. Thesis breaks if hyperscaler capex guidance cuts >15%.
Terminal market share erosion. AMD winning enterprise server. ARM cannibalizing client. Foundry turnaround requires capital Intel cannot generate internally. No catalyst to re-rate.
Key Facts
Data center share at 15yr low. Foundry losing $7B/yr. Cash burn accelerating. Gelsinger options exhausted.
Sizing & Exit
Short on rallies above $33. Cover near $22 — trough multiple on depressed earnings.
Every position requires a written thesis before capital is committed.
Thesis must include a specific invalidation condition — not a price stop.
No position exceeds 5% gross without IC approval.
Gross exposure cap: 200%. Net exposure range: -30% to +60%.
Single-name drawdown of 15% triggers a mandatory thesis review.
Never add to a position to average down. Size is set at initiation.
Earnings Dislocation
77%
22 trades · 2.4R
Stock gaps down on good results due to crowded positioning. Buy the dislocation within 48hrs as fast money unwinds.
Crowded Short Squeeze
64%
14 trades · 2.9R
High short interest + borrow cost spike + catalyst. Cover before the squeeze is consensus.
Macro Regime Short
68%
31 trades · 1.9R
Rising real yields + DXY strength targeting rate-sensitive, unprofitable tech with high duration.
Which short positions have the weakest thesis relative to current price action?
INTC and PARA. Both are down 20%+ from your entry — but your original invalidation conditions haven't triggered. Your INTC thesis notes say 'exit if foundry losses narrow' — they haven't. PARA's thesis says 'exit on streaming profitability' — still not there. The price action is confirming the thesis, not breaking it.
What's our net exposure trend over the past 30 days?
You've gone from +28% net long to +6% net long over the past 30 sessions. Your notes from Jun 3 show you started reducing longs after the Fed minutes. Consistent with the risk-off bias you've been writing about.